Ryan wrote:
The future growth of commercial AP is going to depend on good designs, good marketing and realistic operators/investors.
Yep.
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The problem is that the majority of people making money in AP are doing so by scaling up backyard designs and selling them as commercial designs, hoping for the best without having the experience to bring the designs and/or clients to fruition.
Yep.
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Thousands of people per year are taking expensive training courses... Where are all the success stories? It's not because the tech doesn't work, Rakocy proved that in the 80's!
Yep.
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Aquaculture went through the same hurdles and if you look right now at all of the facilities that have opened in the last 20 years I'll bet there are less than 5% still in operation. The industry has a history of sheisters over promising and under delivering. Still, some businesses were able to see through the BS and find their way to a profitable business.
Hydroponics went through the same growth cycle.
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Ap is going through the EXACT same thing right now. It's very "sexy" and that leads to people jumping on board without giving the designs and buisness economics a through look. It's just so cool!
Eight years ago some one tried to con me out of our money for a "commercial" system. It was that experience that has framed my approach. Back then I could see the science was there to demonstrate that the idea worked but I could quickly see that the engineering work hadn't been done to take the science to the next level.
The other reason why AP hasn't taken off is scale. Eliminating hydroponics fertilisers is a very small saving and is not enough to overcome the problems of scale in systems that are less than 1 hectare. I've said this elsewhere but pump to run a 1ha system $32,000. Pump to run a 1ha system $17,000. Cost per m2 to supply a greenhouse is double at 2000m2 versus 10,000m2. At every level, for every component, for every input scale works against you if you try and build a commercial system that is smaller than 1ha (in the Australian context, likely to be different in other markets but not in Europe where the scale required is more like 2ha).
Personally I believe that the reason that Ryan is making money is not just because he really knows what he is doing when it comes to growing fish and plants but also because he has the skills to successfully market his produce for the premium that is required to make a small system work.