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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 10:43 
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you quote that "vaccination rates were 92% across the UK", then state "The largest outbreak was seen in 1999-2000 when 1,200 people were affected in Dublin and three died." the real question from these two statement is "What was the vaccination rate in the area of dublin where the 1200 cases were contracted?"

but then, that would be applying logic and reason to the argument, instead of red herrings and strawmen.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 11:15 
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Not wanting to be picky but Dublin is in Ireland not the UK. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 12:22 
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The Ireland situation is covered further down in the post. I didn't choose the combination - that was in the original which I quoted. The 92% was for the whole of the UK and they made no distinction when talking about Ireland.

Not sure where the red herring and straw man comments come from but it fits with the usual reaction from true believers when the consensus is questioned - go the man not the ball.
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Thus, a "red herring" argument is one which distracts the audience from the issue in question through the introduction of some irrelevancy.
Perhaps you might poin t out the irrelevancy in a discussion about vaccines? I'd have thought the whole post is on topic.
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The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of "reasoning" has the following pattern:

Person A has position X.
Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).
Person B attacks position Y.
Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.
I fail to see where I have done any such thing. I present, based on another poster's link, a different view regarding the rise in measles and point out it is clearly not to do with vaccinations nor hippies.

Facts are, the level of vaccination changed only briefly after the Wakefield research. Before the research was even having an effect on the general public, Ireland had a spate of cases. (I doubt 1200 cases can be called an epidemic, even in today's wildly exaggerated media) Wales now has another spate of cases, and contrary to the 'hippies' comment Wales is currently at a 94% uptake of vaccination.

Given those facts it seems very clear the 'spate' events have nothing to do with vaccination levels - the EVIDENCE says so.

Unless someone would like to propose some mechanism by which people become vulnerable before any drop off in vaccination rates can have an effect? (which is why I made the comment about the virus reading newspapers)

So, I would have to say the comment about straw man and red herring is actually the red herring being drawn across the subject to try to distract people from what they have read.

What I am saying is the supposed implication that a drop in vaccination rates could immediately cause a rise in the disease is false-to-facts - it takes time for the reduced vaccination rates to begin to have an effect, so the Irish outbreak should not be labelled as a result of the drop in vacvcinations, given the cause of the reductions had barely any time to be taking effect.

And the one in Wales doesn't have a drop in vaccination rates, so the 'hippie' comment is also false-to-facts. Wales has a vaccination rate well and truly high enough to prevent an 'epidemic' from occurring.

And while people are happy to go blaming hippies and those suspicious of vaccination, nobody is looking for the real reasons for these outbreaks. Employing debating tactics is not helpful nor likely to bring any resolution to the issue here OR in the real world.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 14:31 
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the real reason for these outbreaks is that kids who aren't vaccinated are getting sick.

International travel is a lot of the reason why these diseases persist, because we cant vaccinate every person in the world, and we cant stop people travelling. herd immunity works in an isolated herd, but not when you mix herds of mostly vaccinated and mostly unvaccinated.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 14:40 
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Hello :wave1:

The UK (which includes Northern Ireland) has its own government, and health department.
Ireland is a separate country, it has its own government and health department. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 16:09 
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Journeyman wrote:
The 92% was for the whole of the UK and they made no distinction when talking about Ireland.


I think you will find that the 92% relates to the percentage of a group that would be expected to be vaccinated in a given round. That is not 92% of the population.

The UK including Wales has one of the lowest vaccination rates. That would give a very large playground for infections to establish and run rampant.

From what I have read it looks like it is the unvaccinated that are being hit in Wales.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 16:17 
Journeyman wrote:

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The largest outbreak was seen in 1999-2000 when 1,200 people were affected in Dublin and three died.
Note that the 1999/2000 outbreak was BIGGER than the one now?

Note... the newspaper article said that it was expected that the current outbreak WOULD rise to the levels of the 1999-2000 outbreak...

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And you can't even blame this outbreak on the lack of vaccination...

Quote:
Yet the MMR scandal raged 10-15 years ago and, while UK immunisation rates fell from 92 per cent in 1995-6 to 80 per cent in 2003-4, by 2011-12, it was back to 91.2 per cent. In Wales, figures for October to December 2012 show a 94 per cent uptake. Shouldn’t we be back on course?
As you can see, the drop was a blip and never fell below 80% - are we really going to believe that in a population with 92% or better uptake, a drop for 4 or 5 years followed by a swing back to even higher levels of vaccination will result in another outbreak?


Something smells in Swansea and it ain't the fish.

Again the article reported the death of a 25 year old man...

Most people are immunised initially as babies...and the again around age 15-16....

If the immunisation rate started falling 10-15 years ago... to a low of 80% in 2003-4.... 8-9 years ago...

Then the outbreaks spikes... are entirely consistent with the age... and age group susceptibility of the disease.... and directly reflected in the drop in immunisation rates....

That's probably why the health departments.... are rushing to immunise the 15-18 year old group.... :wink:

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The protection offered by MMR seems suspiciously fragile, don't you think? It's not like, in the year after the Wakefield research was published, all the vaccination protection just vanished. So how is it there is another outbreak even though the vaccination rates are pretty much everything that could be hoped?

Because those being affected/infected... are those that weren't immunised during the period....

It's in fact a direct correlation... and proof ....


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 16:52 
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Who cares? The health departments don't, neither the pharmaceutical industry. Does anyone knows for sure what more is in that "flu shot"? Can you really trust medics that are in it for the money, not for the fulfillment of a calling? Never had a flu shot, never will. I put my trust in the thousands of years of experience of Chinese medicine, not in the offspring of some Laudanum tricksters with an untrue oath to Asclepius.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 17:02 
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Aside from the fact that the original report was not made available, and some are a little vague on which country the report is on, Flu spreads by contact (ie compacted people or other sources).
It is not surprising, given the rabbit hutch mentality of planners and developers, that it is able to develop so rapidly and infect so many.
Talking about Flu is like talking about plastic, its a generic term given to something, and in this case a group of viruses.

Initiatives to wipe out some of the nastier diseases has worked to a degree (actually in some cases quite successfully) this will not wipe it out. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 17:34 
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SuperVeg wrote:
Image


What about a summer growing fish in that pyramid?
And the processed meat definitely needs removing IMO


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 17:40 
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Yep, processed meat shouldn't be in any food pyramid, but I do love bacon :D


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 20:16 
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Sleepe wrote:
Aside from the fact that the original report was not made available, and some are a little vague on which country the report is on, Flu spreads by contact (ie compacted people or other sources).
It is not surprising, given the rabbit hutch mentality of planners and developers, that it is able to develop so rapidly and infect so many.
Talking about Flu is like talking about plastic, its a generic term given to something, and in this case a group of viruses.

Initiatives to wipe out some of the nastier diseases has worked to a degree (actually in some cases quite successfully) this will not wipe it out. :)



Flu is influenza virus, always has been, always will. people assume they had "the flu" then they had a minor cold, or a sniffly nose. Influenza is a very specific disease, with a very specific set of symptoms. Influenza is also one of the most genetically variable diseases, able to switch between various serotypes (ie, H5N1, H1N1, etc)

The "Flu shot" is only designed to protect against the serotypes most likely to be circulating in the country in which you are immunised. Its modified every single year based on normal transmission routes and whats circulating in those areas. Its not going to stop you getting a cold, or a sore throat, nothing will stop that.


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 20:26 
Damn these natural eco-systems.... :D


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 23rd, '13, 20:30 
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Quote:
What about a summer growing fish in that pyramid?


Perch or Barra ? :)

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And the processed meat definitely needs removing IMO

Quote:
Yep, processed meat shouldn't be in any food pyramid, but I do love bacon


If it is actually processed meat then yes. But define processed....

However sausages and salami and bacon for that reason don't HAVE to be "processed" but can be naturally cured and made.

And at the end of the day, I would assume (pending further knowledge) that the only real processing as such is just added nitrates (not including crappy sausages with bread and sugar etc.)? I'll take some added nitrates every now and then... So for all intents and purposes, it is as pretty much paleo as you can get.

On that note, I found some traditionally cured prosciutto at Aldi the other day.
Ingredeints: Pork, salt.

That's it, and it tasted amazing !


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 Post subject: Re: Flu shots...?
PostPosted: Apr 30th, '13, 09:43 
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Theres a bit of a ross river virus epedemic going on in Kalgoorlie at the moment. With the early rains we had a while back, there is a lot of stagnent water sitting around and the mozzie numbers are out of control. There has been about 25 cases so far but what is interesting is once it made it to the paper we have had guys calling in sick with the virus like nothing else. I asked one that called in the other day how does he know he has the virus and his reply was that the doctor did a blood test. When I told him that 2 blood tests 2 weeks apart were required to correctly diagnose the virus I could hear nothing but crickets on the phone.

Isnt it strange that as soon as a few people get something, they all follow like sheep. This is common where I work... bloody lazy drongo's thinking the world owes them something.


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