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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 13th, '11, 17:42 
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It may be important to note that accurate figures about the major oil fields are usually difficult to get for commercial or political reasons. I don't know if anybody has a good handle on the Saudi oil fields, because that information is very sensitive. The whole Saudi economy is based on pumping out the stuff and the population could get a bit restless if they think it's coming to an end.

I saw on Coast (SBS) recently that Norway is tapping their undersea gas reserves - and piping it to Britain! Norway energy is based on hydroelectric, and they export their oil / gas.

Mr Damage, I would prefer gas to be used instead of coal (particularly brown coal). What do the coal miners think?

I agree with Joel that we should be using the relatively cheap fossil fuels we have to build more renewables - because we will find it a lot harder if we wait until the cheap energy has gone.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 13th, '11, 22:34 
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earthbound wrote:
We are not paying through our noses...

We've been riding on the back of incredibly cheap finite energy sources for the past 100 odd years and guess what, it's not sustainable. We can deal with the fact now that energy has been under priced for all these years and work on finding alternatives, or we can try to find another stop gap like gas that will keep us going for a little while longer. But it's still a finite resource and we are still using it up at an ever increasing rate, and we aren't dealing with the main problem of our incredibly inefficient lifestyles, industry and agriculture methods.

So I guess my answer would actually be no..

Technologies are basically there, some of them may need a little help to get over the mark and into commercialization, but they are there.. Better to spend time and resources on those rather than just another "stop gap" finite resource..



It may not be as finite as we think. There is new reseach suggesting oil is created by bacteria much faster then we previously thought. And if nothing come of that I am personally not worried about peek oil. Long before we run out, prices will raise enough that other methods of energy become more attractive. Then the more alt fules that are used the cheaper they will become. Basic econmics really. I've been in the industry for 15 years and the only hang up I have seen in my time is that government gets in the way from time to time and makes it harder for us to produce. I won't go as far as to say the greenies are totally wrong or mis-informed, but I think many times they can be blinded by thier cause. In any case...there is a TON of the stuff out there still. There is plenty of time to NOT make rash decissions.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 01:31 
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We may already be in peak oil. The one thing that needs to be considered is that as prices go up demand goes down, balancing things out a bit. Right now our gas is $4.15/gallon in my area. I've personally reduced my gas usage. Recent data shows many in the US are doing the same thing. So if oil production peaks and prices go up, people will adjust their lifestyle. Alternatives will look more affordable.

Many people here in California are already adjusting. Switching to hybrid vehicles (that's not just because Californian's are greenies, it's also because we commute a lot and have some of the highest gas prices in the nation), building wind turbines, and solar panels, etc.

Now I'm not totally against the doomsayers. Look at the housing bubble. Doomsayers were right. If prices rise too high too quickly, that could certainly cause a huge economic problem. Everytime gas goes up the price of my milk and eggs goes up too. Basically the price of energy is tied to the price of goods throughout the economy.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 07:07 
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I have seen research that shows we are already in/past 'peak oil'. Unfortuneately this issue cant be sepparated from politics. Its funny to see the greenie bashing card because unless I'm mistaken, our Gov is controlled by the greens. Its naive to group a now mainstream - was it 20% of votes? - voting orientation as leftie tree hugging pretesters. The greens got the vote bacasue your average Australian has a raised awareness of the human impact on the planet, the local environment and the collective responsibility to act with society future generations in mind....

I dont beleive there will be a oil, financial or other sudden crash - but I have two different friends who sold up everything and live in the country in the event that the world econmy crashes due to peak oil they have no debt and can survive. Histeria doesnt do anyone much good. Its nice to visit them in the country though so as a result they are probably more relaxed!


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 08:57 
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I have two different friends who sold up everything and live in the country in the event that the world econmy crashes due to peak oil they have no debt and can survive.


Sounds like a plan... Oil or no oil


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 11:17 
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bonsaibelly wrote:
Its naive to group a now mainstream - was it 20% of votes? - voting orientation as leftie tree hugging pretesters. The greens got the vote bacasue your average Australian has a raised awareness of the human impact on the planet, the local environment and the collective responsibility to act with society future generations in mind....


Yes, Greens won central Melbourne. Now Central Melbourne is not filled with tree hugging protesting hippies, it's demographic is older intelligent, uni educated, professional career people. who are also protesting tree hugging hippies.

You're fuel is still pretty cheap over in the US, you guys have just hit $4 a gallon or about $1 a litre. We are currently at around $1.50 a litre or $6 a gallon while in England you're looking at over $2 a litre, or $8 a gallon.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 12:47 
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Even if we had infinite oil, we still need to get off of it because of its carbon footprint. Same with natural gas. It's less damaging to the environment than oil, but still damaging.

EB, I wish more over here in the US knew what the price of gas was in Australia and Europe. But we're the best society in the world for putting our heads in the sand... :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 13:39 
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Take heart Swanberg, it seems they we are doing our best to follow you guys in all ways, including becoming damn good at stickin our heads in the sand..

It's a sorry state of affairs when master chef, dancing with the stars, footy results and the the latest gossip relating to these things is what captures peoples attention, and what motivates and excites people..

I was watching some TED last night about a guy who has reversed engineered silk, silk is made from proteins and water at room temperature (inside a silkworm), now he has production on demand, he can make items like bones, screws, bolts, blood vessels etc because silk is not rejected by the body. Silk that looks like clear plastic, silk cups instead of foam coffee cups, nano constructions, 3D holograms, optical fibres, micro needle arrays. You can create embedded flexible electronics that can be embedded in the body for release of medicines and the silk integrates with the body when done, you don't have to remove anything.

Or how about the lady who is starting to produce super batteries based on the same type of layering process that happens in the making of abalone shells. Extremely small powerful batteries produced by simple biological processes done at room temperature without any harmful wastes. Methods that have taken millions of years to perfect...

But I guess life changing breakthroughs aren't really news worthy not when there's a royal wedding on, or you can interview the coach of a footy team, or even better still interview one of the players.. "yeah, it was a great game, yeah, we trained hard and put a lot of work into it. Yeah, we stuck to our game plan and it was great.."

TV stations have a lot to answer for in helping to dumb down the population.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 15:49 
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earthbound wrote:
You're fuel is still pretty cheap over in the US, you guys have just hit $4 a gallon or about $1 a litre. We are currently at around $1.50 a litre or $6 a gallon while in England you're looking at over $2 a litre, or $8 a gallon.


Wow interesting... Are you guys using gasoline or diesel? I did the conversions from peso in the Philippines when I was there and couldn't believe they could afford to pay so much for gas... Then I realized they used diesel, that's how. You get more energy from a gallon of diesel and since it runs at a lower RPM it puts less wear and tear on the engine. Only problem is how much it pollutes the air.

I wonder why there is a difference in the price. Our gas is not subsidized. Perhaps shipping and extraction costs? Most of our oil comes from US (41%), then Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela, then Saudi Arabia. So most is fairly local.

I always think about where our oil comes from when I see the bumper stickers "no blood for oil". As far as I can tell we have no reason to go to Iraq or Afghanistan for oil. We're just playing cowboy, that's all... Who wants to play the Indians? :twisted:


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 19:38 
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Bah, shut the gates, stop the trade and we'll see how we survive "peak oil" I'm sure we have enough of it on our own shores to see the price of fuel come down and still have shite loads of it when the rest of the world runs out to sell back! :drunken: :drunken:


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 21:05 
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BNDYBEAR wrote:
Bah, shut the gates, stop the trade and we'll see how we survive "peak oil" I'm sure we have enough of it on our own shores to see the price of fuel come down and still have shite loads of it when the rest of the world runs out to sell back! :drunken: :drunken:

Not sure how that logic works when we are a net importer, and not just by a small % of our consumption......


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 15th, '11, 21:14 
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First stage in Grief and Loss is Anger then Denial eventually you get at acceptance

The major misconception is Peak Oil means we will run out of oil
It just means we will run out of cheap oil not oil
In the early days oil would take 1 lot of energy to produce 100 lots of oil
Now its at about 10 in to get 100
It becomes un-ecenomic at about 20
That could happen with 60% of oil still in the ground in known wells
Our economies are based on cheap oil
There is nothing on the planet that we can store, use, transport that has as much stored energy as a barrel of oil.
Oil is everything
Food ,Plastics, Pesticides, Fertilisers.Medicines,etc etc .........you name it it had oil in some part of the production

The food riots in the Middle East are caused by rising food prices
Oil is food
Obviously the people on $2 a day are going to feel the pinch first,this will spread to more affluent countries as the price rises.

There have been no major new discoveries (yes a few minor ones but nothing to rival Saudi and we need 4 new Saudis to come on line to keep us at the level we are at now)
Saudi is still the biggest oil feild and they have totally overestimated their reserves
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011 ... -wikileaks

As China and India get richer and start driving more the predictions are supply will outstrip demand by 2015
Thats when prices go through the roof.
It could be a total collapse it could be collapse a floor a collapse a floor no one knows.
But it wont be busness as usual
Australia will be cushioned because we can convert petrol cars to LPG and diesel to LNG and we have plenty of coal for power.
Problem will be that the rest of the world will be trying to do the same driving up the price of coal and gas
The only long term solution is localised organic food produvtion cheap renewable electricity and lots of electric trains to move people and goods around
That infrastructure needs to start being built now.(and its probably already too late)
You wouldnt want to live in the burbs, miles from public transport or make your money off tourism.


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 16th, '11, 00:48 
Seriously, this cant be healthy.
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mantis wrote:
Bring it on, I reckon. Slow the bloody world down to a livable pace :wink:


+1

Sadly though, I suspect we will discover something new and even more exciting to burn.

Come to think of it, I think there is a process for squeezing oil out of brown coal that will eventually become viable when oil prices get high enough.

Oh well.

My personal long term fuel solution is to just scoop up all that plastic crap that we've all been stockpiling in the Atlantic, pour acetone over it, add some car tires, and simply set fire to it.

It's a pity asbestos doesn't burn very well


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 16th, '11, 07:21 
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Dont think there is anything new and exciting to burn that is cheap like oil and delivers the same energy output or is easy to store and transport around the world and you can make plastic from or it would have been burnt.

Electric cars and Hydrogen is a no go as they need rare metal and they will run out quicker than cheap oil.
Nuclear power has 80 years left at current rate and if all the world converted it has 5 years left
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-05-nuc ... nergy.html

Man will need to start hunting sperm whales again or burning mummified cats to run the furnaces

There will be alternatives but not at the cheap price of oil that our world economy is based on thats the game changer.
Quote:
In the United States, 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American (as of data provided in 1994).7 Agricultural energy consumption is broken down as follows:

· 31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer

· 19% for the operation of field machinery

· 16% for transportation

· 13% for irrigation

· 08% for raising livestock (not including livestock feed)

· 05% for crop drying

· 05% for pesticide production

· 08% miscellaneous

Energy costs for packaging, refrigeration, transportation to retail outlets, and household cooking are not considered in these figures.

from a good book Eating Fossil Fuels
http://www.newsociety.com/Books/E/Eating-Fossil-Fuels


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 Post subject: Re: Peak Oil
PostPosted: May 16th, '11, 07:58 
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Snags wrote:
Man will need to start hunting sperm whales again or burning mummified cats to run the furnaces

I'm all for mummifying cats - bring it on !


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