Backyard Aquaponics
A place to discuss aquaponics

I recently came across this book. And since a number of forum members have raised financial concerns about the current times, etc, I thought I should share this with whoever who is interested.

Link provided below from Dymocks but you should be able to find it elsewhere.
http://www.dymocks.com.au/ProductDetails/ProductDetail.aspx?R=9781863953597&Producode=9781863953597

I have not read the whole book so I cannot comment on whether it is a worthy read. You will have to check it out in a bookstore yourself.

However the reason why I am posting this thread now is because the author has predicted the "prefect storm" is just ahead of us, in 2010. The minor recovery we are seeing now (with all the RBA talks about recovery, etc) is just "the calm before the real storm".

September is just around the corner, so 2010 is on its way.

Anyway, just reading the first few pages, he did predict the 2008 sub-prime crisis which he has warned many people about. But as it appears, he always stands alone in his predictions, but has been right about them so far.

Anyways, enjoy.

Here's a couple of follow up articles...

http://www.hsdent.com/tgca_pr.pdf

http://www.prlog.org/10193937-the-great ... y-dent.pdf

http://www.hsdent.com/MediaRelease_0109.pdf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OuikYJBqYU

I've read some of Dent's other books, and he makes a pretty convincing case that population growth rates determine economic growth rates.

For those who don't know, the basic idea is that people as a whole buy stuff at predictable times. People enter college all around the same age, get their first job around the same age, get married around the same age, buy a house around the same age, etc etc. For the psychology buffs in the house, you'll recognize this as the cohort effect .

Dent's position is that it is this aggregate behavior applied to spending that drives economic growth, and that because there was a lull in the birth rate some 25 years ago, there will be a smaller population buying stuff. This smaller buying power translates into weaker economic growth compared to what we have seen over the past 15 years or so.

If I remember the dates right, Dent predicts that we'll be in a depression from 2010 to 2023.

IMHO, this may be true (although the dates may be plus or minus a few). Regardless of whether it really is true, it is a strong argument for people to have their financial lives in order. We never really know when trouble will hit, so we need to be prepared at all times. Of course, I need to take my own advice on that .

Anyways, Dent's books are thought-provoking if nothing else.

Another collary affect, with the lower birth rate ... will be a smaller tax payer base...

Couple lower consumer demand, less governement tax intake... with the demands of health and pension costs of a newly retired and aged population....

And you not only have lower demand economically... but goverment inability to input financial stimulus...

Housing is a big one.... we have,during the boom times.... artificially over-valued the property market by around 50% IMO.... all on borrowed money, and much of it against equity, or refinancing of what once would have been mortgage free homes being passed onto our kids...

I don't believe in doom and gloom, Australia didn't suffer that much, I actually have earned more since the recession started, We have good trading partners, all the resources which we need to manage better, selling rocks to asia for $3 a ton and buying them back as $30.000 cars, and other steel products doesn't make a lot of sense.
Australia (or at least over here) is going to have a bumper grain harvest, people still have to eat, we continue to trade with our over populated neighbors all will be fine. China one of our main trades is well into financial growth, US didn't have such a good grain return so need to buy in and not sell, our problems occur when the US has a bumper season and floods the market, prices drop, also a high American dollar hinders us as well, great for buying, but bad for selling, Livestock prices are well up as well (look at meat in the supermarket), I maybe bias coming from a farming community, but it is one of OZ's biggest resources, if farmers do well then the economy does well, I don't think 2010 will see us in depression, for me 2010 will be a brilliant year, just because the Northern Hemisphere is suffering doesn't mean we have to, we need to manage and market the things we have, what we have is what everyone wants

Perhaps Nocky... but you miss the point that the author makes...

Demand, in all countries has matched a generational "boom" in population...

Almost all countries, especially China with it's "one child" policy, but others as well... have since had a generational decline in birth rates...

The older population wont be spending as they have been for the past two decades... and the next two decades wont have as many people to spend...

I have not finished reading his book, but I think he studies the demographics and cycles of the WORLD.

Bear in mind, what the author is talking about is not an RECESSION. It is a DEPRESSION.

Recession is just what people used to call depression . Economists introduced the term after the big one (1929-1945). The only difference between them now is the level of general unemployment. Depression is anything over 10%. I believe with the latest numbers the US is now in a depression. Of course you'll never hear a politician say anything of the kind .

But, all in all, I think Nocky makes a valid point. There are opportunities of some kind in all markets. But that gets into the murky area of whether you are the sheep or the shepherd.

In any potential global depression that may or may not be coming, a lot of people will suffer in terms of standard of living. You don't have to be one of them though. You can also choose to recognize that "standard of living" isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I see your point rupe, maybe in that scenario I am selfish, I have already worked my ass of for 30+ years with another 17 left, I don't think my lifestyle will change, I own my house, car and almost all other toys, I have enough put away for my life I hope, so I will spend, my kids I am supporting to get started and then they will have to do what I have done, certain parts of the world will go into depression, possibly the US will, but we no longer depend on the what happens in the US and I think Australia will go along fine, we just have to manage things, if we don't trade because no one else can buy, then we can still be self supporting, and work will still have to be done, some may not like doing the jobs available, that's their choice, we have a huge shortage of labor down here, a guy on a weather forum I belong to was a classic example, started a thread about how the recession had caused him to loose his job and his life was a mess, (in Perth) told him to PM if he wanted work as plenty available here, posted back that it would upset his lifestyle to leave the city
Australia doesn't have to follow suit is my point, I don't beleive we will in the next 10 years anyhow

Not "nockying" you Nocky....

But IMO... the growth rates of the last decade+ ... just aren't sustainable... from an ecological, economic or population standpoint... and IMO are/were artificially inflated by credit that weren't backed by the same level of real production.... but again often fuelled by credit/debt

Many companies have/had incredibly poor debt:earnings ratios... and are winding them back as fast as they can...

The Chinese and Indian economies are to a large part, or at least from Australias perspective ... fueled by supply of cheap product to the western world...

If, and it has already done so.... demand in the western world dries up... then they can only sustain about half their current growth rates internally due to their vast populations...

But those same populations have become recently enamoured by western capatalism and consumerism... and if unemploment was to compromise those new found expectations and lifestyles....

Both countries could well implode... certainly there would be catastrophic social unrest...


There is no doubt opportunities... and money to be made... during a prolonged downturn/depression... and those that are "cashed up" and "liquid" may indeed do alright...

And from an investment point of view... that's exactly what he's advising... and what many are doing at the "big end of town"...

<groan> Why does fatherhood do that to a man?

Talk to me in ten years Gemmel....

I love blokes like that, means more money for me

Stupid city people

It is great to know that some members have read the book. I intend to finish reading the book as well.

I know that when it comes to anything especially finance, economics, politics, etc, there are always different views.
That's fine. I actually do hope that Dent is full of shit and the depression never comes... But for my future and my kids'
future, I will not take that gamble. I rather be ready for it.

Hey... not all city people are stupid...