Backyard Aquaponics
A place to discuss aquaponics

Speaking of money, the company I work for works for oil companies. Its amazing to see the oil companies go from %15-%20 growth per year to a stand still in only a couple months!! :Shocked: Seems that even with as much money as the oil companies have they do not take money from their pocket to drill a well, then get a loans for it and don't have operation capital when its harder to get loans...

Even personally, I noticed a couple of my creditors lowered my credit limit Not that I cant I never used it anyway.. Everyone is tightening their belts just in case.

MONEY or FOOD.........what's more important?


A Growing Problem 5-12-08

by Jennifer Barry
Global Asset Strategist


Back in May, I wrote about the dire state of global food supplies. At that time, grain stockpiles were at their lowest in decades, with only 50 days of supply. Food security was at risk, as demand spiked from increased human consumption and government mandates to use grain for biofuel production. At the same time, agricultural stockpiles were contracting from the mysterious disappearance of pollinating bats and bees, the conversion of prime farmland into housing developments, and hostile weather conditions in key growing areas.

Eight months later, food supplies have increased dramatically. The agricultural markets look troubled on a technical basis when priced in U.S. Dollars. Orange juice, sugar, corn, and rice are in a downtrend even after substantial price drops. The milk, soybean and wheat markets are trendless, looking for a catalyst to move one direction or the other. Buzz in the media about the possibility of a global depression has kept the commodity markets on edge.

Early predictions for the U.S. grain harvest were dire, as flooding submerged crops throughout the U.S. heartland. The condition of American fields is globally significant as the nation is the world's largest grain exporter. However, the weather unexpectedly cooperated with farmers in the latter half of the growing season, and the U.S. produced a bumper crop of most staples.

The American corn crop had an excellent year, with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expecting a 12.02 billion bushel yield - the second largest crop in history. The futures price was impacted by the reversal of fortune, correcting from a high of USD $7.99 in June to $2.93 today. The corn price was also hit by the drop in ethanol demand, as a recession in the developed world and lower crude oil prices decrease the need for biofuels. Despite lower costs, U.S. grain exports have suffered as Eurasian countries seek closer suppliers like the Ukraine or Russia.

Despite this bearish price news, corn should form a bottom in the next few months. The CBOT corn futures already expect a 45 cent jump by September 2009, and that bet is probably way too low. U.S. farmers should get a boost as livestock producers decide to feed corn instead of more expensive wheat. The artificially high U.S. dollar is dampening demand for all exports, including grains, but the greenback should soon resume its downward trend. Even with near-record yields in 2008, by August 31 of next year corn stockpiles are expected to be very tight at 1.1 billion bushels, the lowest stocks-to-use ratio in over three decades.

The U.S. soybean crop is also robust, with a prediction of a 2.9 billion bushel harvest in 2008 - a 9% increase over last year. While the increase is significant, the futures price overreacted, plunging from $16.37 per bushel in July to $7.86. Grains usually are in contango (when the future price is higher than the spot) due to the cost of storage. However the contango in soybeans is proportionally low in comparison to corn, at only a 34 cent difference between the January and September contracts.

Although the soybean market is dominated by pessimism, I see many reasons for investor confidence next year. Dry weather in Southern Brazil and Argentina has already caused a halt in soybean planting. Lower expected yields in the Southern Hemisphere coupled with continued strong demand suggests that the USDA estimate of carryover stocks is much too high at 205 million bushels. China's recent announcement of a USD $586 billion stimulus package should support demand for all commodities, and the country is now building soybean reserves to aid its livestock producers. If Argentine farmers go on strike again over export taxes, soybean supplies could be near zero by the fall. I expect prices to increase dramatically next year.

High prices for wheat spurred planting this spring, and stockpiles in May 2009 are predicted to be almost double this spring's 34 year lows. The European Union increased production by 26% in 2008, leaving the EU with an ample buffer for the first time in five years. Wheat prices have suffered greatly, with a crash from $13.50 in February to $4.55 this week.

Nevertheless, this increase in wheat stocks still represents a "historically low" supply equalling 22% of annual world consumption, or less than twelve weeks. In addition, wet conditions have delayed the harvest of soybeans and corn, preventing many growers from sowing winter wheat crops. While this will temporarily boost supply as grain usually needed for seed will remain in inventory, this will decrease next year's output. Wheat crops in Argentina and Australia have suffered stress from lack of rain and will likely yield less grain.

The grains share the same problems with other agricultural products, as the scarcity of credit will likely suppress food production next year. Lack of loans to purchase equipment means that farmers must delay planting, reduce acreage or both. The usual credit sources have increased interest rates and refused to allow weaker customers to borrow at all. In addition, spiking prices for diesel, fertilizer, farm machinery, and even seed make the current market prices unprofitable for many growers.

Another factor dampening global food supply is the decline of pollinators like bees and bats. This mystery is unfortunately far from solved. Approximately 9.5% of total agricultural output is dependent on pollination in order to reproduce, contributing upwards of USD $215 billion to the global economy. Honeybees continue to suffer from Colony Collapse Disorder, where adult bees disappear without a trace. Theories on the cause range from viral and mite infections, to poor nutrition, pesticide use, or abnormally large honeycomb cells. In 2006, the U.S. had to import honeybees for the first time since 1922, and in 2007, the number of commercial bee colonies dropped another 31%.

Bats are suffering from white nose syndrome, which has killed hundreds of thousands of these mammals in the Northeast United States. Some caves have been decimated, with 97% of their bat population gone. The syndrome is associated with a fungus, but scientists don't know if the fungus causes the fatalities directly or if it simply causes the bats to awaken from hibernation in the depths of winter and starve to death. Not only do some species of bats help farmers with pollination, they also consume insects in large quantities, and their loss can unbalance the ecosystem.

Commodities to Rebound

All this gloom and pessimism from the markets has made me even more bullish on commodities. I disagree with the analysts that have labelled the rally in commodities a bubble. I don't think we've seen a commodity bubble for over two decades. To compare increases in food prices to the speculation in the housing sector just confuses the issue, as the fundamentals are completely different.

In contrast to real estate, the supplies of foodstuffs never reached an excessive level, as stockpiles are at multi-decade lows. Very few consumers ever speculated in food, while "flipping" of real estate was common. Food-related ETFs didn't even exist a few years ago, that's how novel investing in food is. Although builders became very wealthy during the housing boom, farmers benefited very little until this year. Corn, wheat, soybeans and rice sell for less on the Chicago Board of Trade than they did a year ago, while costs have jumped. Now that banks are reluctant to extend credit, the capital investment in agriculture will shrink to an unsustainably low level. Those are indications of a major market bottom, not a recently popped bubble.

Unlike discretionary purchases like theater tickets or electronics, consumers need to eat so they will continue to buy food. While demand for organic produce has dropped as people attempt to cut costs, only the very poorest will eat less as a result of the economic downturn. In addition, grain futures are currently very cheap on an inflation adjusted basis. Grains are the basic building blocks of everyone's diet, and provide most of the feed for livestock producers.

I expect grains to make a strong recovery next year as conditions are aligning for another "perfect storm" in agriculture. While 2008 has been a strong year for food production, expect limited shortages to arise in the second half of 2009. The USDA predicts that global grain stockpiles will dwindle to 67 days of supply before the Northern Hemisphere harvests next year, almost as low as stores in the spring of 2008. Any bad news in 2009 should send the markets sharply higher.

A Shrinking Pantry

Even with an ample harvest, I fear for a serious food crisis in 2009 if the credit markets are not unfrozen. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the global cost of shipping commodities, has fallen a precipitous 94% this year to the lowest level since 1987. While some of this decline can be explained by decreased demand and larger fleet capacity, the real issue is the severe credit contraction. Many exporters can't get the letters of credit necessary to finance their commodity cargoes. Banks are only issuing credit to their best customers, and even then, the interest rates have soared. Most importing countries are dealing with the frozen drybulk shipping markets by eating through their stockpiles, a situation which is unsustainable. Depleted stores coupled with a poor local harvest could lead to famine conditions in the most impoverished countries next year.

I want to encourage readers to again stock up on nonperishable foods. In most countries, buying extra food in May when I first recommended it would have saved on grocery bills. You don't have to buy anything exotic, just purchase extra supplies of the foods you normally eat, especially if you can take advantage of a sale.

Even if you live in a prosperous country, the ongoing credit freeze could make your favorite items expensive or difficult to get. Most Icelanders didn't worry about getting their basic needs met during the boom. They never expected that a crisis would make foreigners reject their currency and cut credit to importers. Reports indicate the island only has three to five weeks of food left, a scary prospect. After learning of the crisis in Iceland, I think that storing some emergency food and water is an essential investment in your health and peace of mind.

Email I received today..........



Sorry pics are not so good cos had to snap them out of a Powerpoint presentation....

sorry Chelle, that one is false http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/mondex.asp

woohoo

Hi Jaymie

Wish it could just be wished away..... Who doesn't?
Please note when this technology first surfaced.
Too serious to ignore... no matter how unpleasant. Too much in evidence if you really research it properly ..........
Being awake and prepared is the best defence. And then telling others you care about...



Full article here: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/artic ... E_ID=17705


Full article here....http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/artic ... E_ID=17834


Found here......http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+ ... gel+(DIGAD)+to+Sell+its+45%25+Stake+in+VeriChip+(CHIP)/4157026.html

From the Verichip site: http://www.verichipcorp.com/content/company/rfidtags



This might be of interest to some........
http://www.bis.org/review/r080407a.pdf

Well Chelle, I don't think you are too far off if at all. I watched friends of mine retire early just because their company wouldn't pay by check anymore only direct deposit. Then companies went to picture IDs to picture IDs with smart card capabilities now the Federal government has us useing a TWIC card which was mandated by homeland security/coastguard (our plant is on the Mississippi River) It is the Transportation Workers Identification Card. It is filed with the FBI and Homeland security for a background check then they take both palm prints, hand prints and all individual finger prints. The plant I work in has over 600 cameras mounted and hidden within it. The smart card is needed for computer access as well as certain building access. Sometime next month we will be getting spot checked for our twic cards and our fingerprints had better match up electronicly. When I went to pick up my card I had to run my finger prints 3 times before it would except it was me. Something like that is the logical next step. but from a biblical stand point it's scary!

Yes BRB. Very scary stuff unless secure in the Lord. And so I understand why people just don't want to hear about it. But not to speak of it is the worst thing possible. Worst for us that is.... best for whoever has this awful control-the-world agenda. The Bible speaks of a great catching away of believers before the worst begins. And the invitation is there for "whosoever will call upon the name of the Lord". Romans 10:9 in New Living Translation explains easiest.

Your experience rings true with me. It is repeated all the time now at many levels all over the world. Deep down we all know that something is closing in. Worldwide we have got sensitised to increased lack of privacy and more controls. Like the proverbial frog sitting in a pan of cold water that slowly heats until that frog is cooked - we get acclimated to greater transgressions against basic human rights as individuals. Public reaction is tested and if there is a strong reaction certain controls are removed for a while to be tested later....


Taken from...http://www.countdown.org/end/mark_of_the_beast_02.htm


Rest of article here..........http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... es.privacy


Rest of the article here.........http://www.alternet.org/rights/75133/

Sometimes - and increasingly more frequently - something happens that makes me think about it all again... and I walk into a new day; look at the big open sky, feel the sun on my back and it all seems like a strange kind of science fiction that can't possibly be true - a madness that can't possibly in the hearts of some people... a wish to herd me with the rest of the world into tight parameters where I am completely controlled. If I did not see it so clearly laid out in the scriptures I would scoff it off and enjoy my day. Well...... I still decide to enjoy my day......... The future might look threatening but I can make today the best I possibly can and use it wisely. God has warned us very clearly - and in time - so we can escape the worst. He is a Father and wants us with Him.

Before you know it these service would be used to prevent alternative points of view.. They are already trying to silence talk radio.

I have a chip in my dog... it doesn't worry me, why should it?

Also, the war of controllers over freedomers have waged since Cain killed his brother in the beginning of our "biblical time" so what's different?

Again, there's always space for those controllers and space for those freedom fighters. The problem only arises when both wants the same space and attention.

GOLD.........more sustainable than PAPERMONEY

17/12/2008

Richard Russell last night:
Now as the Bernanke-Paulson team open the monetary flood-gates in their desperate effort to halt deflation and bring back inflation. Our creditors (i.e. China) must be getting nervous, and they're beginning to let us know about it. The problem for our creditors -- the dollar is now fading rapidly. There's one obvious way to make the dollar more attractive -- higher interest rates. The choice now -- rising rates or a declining dollar. What I'm most worried about is the US dollar losing reserve status. This would mean that our creditors would refuse to take in more fiat Federal Reserve notes, "money" that we can print as we want.

Gold -- I believe that big money, institutional money, is finally beginning to "get it" about gold. Bonds are in trouble, muni bonds are getting hit, the dollar is in trouble, real estate is getting killed, the world is swimming in debt, and we're facing a monster "margin call" on all debt. Where can you find wealth that is not anchored in debt? Only one place -- gold.

Many people, and not just wealthy people, are thinking in terms of survival. How do you survive in a world that won't lend, in a world where nobody trusts anyone else, in a world, where every asset class is in danger? Only one place -- eternal wealth -- gold. This is the concept that has alluded the public and the wealthy as well. It took a situation (as now) where ALL asset classes are in danger before the smartest people on the planet finally "got it." The "last man standing is gold." When the world's asset classes are crumbling, only gold is left.

You can see it in gold's action. While almost all other assets are sinking, gold on a year-over year basis is up 5.6%. So far, this year, gold is up .01%. Nothing else can match gold's performance. Talk about superior relative strength, you're seeing it in gold.

Gold stocks are common stocks. Up to now, gold shares have acted like typical common stocks -- they've been declining with the Dow and the S&P. I've been saying that once bullion starts moving higher on a steady basis, the beaten down gold shares will start acting like entities that produce gold, rather than ordinary mining stocks that sink with the general stock market.

One of the best tests of an asset or a stock is its relative strength compared with the standard -- the S&P. Below I show a daily chart of GDX, the exchange traded fund (ETF) for gold shares, divided by the S&P. GDX is starting to show positive relative strength. From a March 17 high of 55.74, GDX (crumbling with the rest of the market) hit a low of 15.03 on October 24. Today GDX is selling at 30.67, almost a double from the low.

If gold continues to climb, I would think that oversold GDX will head higher.

&

Year after year -- This may shock you. What item has closed higher every year since 2000? I'm indebted to my old Manhattan friend, Ron Rosen for this one. Here are the gold closings for the following years --

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- ?

Asked price for spot gold as of yesterday $837.10. So question --will gold close the year 2008 above its 2007 closing price of $838.00?
Guess we're going to find out at the end of December. Isn't this a fascinating business? Ya gotta love it.

The "Oracle of Omaha," Warren Buffett, once said this about gold (thanks to Hubert Moolman for this Buffett quote) --

"It gets dug out in Africa or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

When it comes to gold, Warren didn't know what he is talking about. Warren should have listened to his daddy, who was a confirmed gold-man. The following is from Google regarding Howard Buffett, Warren's dad --


Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money
by Hon. Howard Buffett
U.S. Congressman from Nebraska

Reprinted from The Commercial and Financial Chronicle 5/6/48
"Congressman Buffett stresses relation between money and freedom and contends without a redeemable currency, individual's freedom to sustain himself or move his property is dependent on goodwill of politicians. Says paper money systems generally collapse and result in economic chaos. Points out gold standard would restrict government spending and give people greater power over public purse. Holds present is propitious time to restore gold standard."
"Is there a connection between Human Freedom and A Gold Redeemable Money? At first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere.

"But when you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty. You see, gold is mobility, gold is a passport to move across borders.

"Also, when you find that Lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money, then again you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom.

"In that case then certainly you and I as Americans should know the connection. We must find it even if money is a difficult and tricky subject. I suppose that if most people were asked for their views on money the almost universal answer would be that they didn't have enough of it.

"In a free country the monetary unit rests upon a fixed foundation of gold or gold and silver independent of the ruling politicians. Our dollar was that kind of money before 1933. Under that system paper currency is redeemable for a certain weight of gold, at the free option and choice of the holder of paper money."
-END-

Glad I live in a gold town

Yeah....... freedom of speech as long as we approve. Oxymoron.

An interesting article.........

http://www.newvillage.net/Journal/Issue ... money.html

In 1980 gold was $980 Oz